Showing posts with label predicting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predicting. Show all posts

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Think Again (Adam Grant))

This book was really good. Adam Grant always is really good. Rethinking what you think you know is a key to lifelong learning.


Goodreads says:
Think Again is a book about the benefit of doubt, and about how we can get better at embracing the unknown and the joy of being wrong. Evidence has shown that creative geniuses are not attached to one identity, but constantly willing to rethink their stances and that leaders who admit they don't know something and seek critical feedback lead more productive and innovative teams.

New evidence shows us that as a mindset and a skilllset, rethinking can be taught and Grant explains how to develop the necessary qualities to do it. Section 1 explores why we struggle to think again and how we can learn to do it as individuals, arguing that 'grit' alone can actually be counterproductive. Section 2 discusses how we can help others think again through learning about 'argument literacy'. And the final section 3 looks at how schools, businesses and governments fall short in building cultures that encourage rethinking.

In the end, learning to rethink may be the secret skill to give you the edge in a world changing faster than ever.
 

Notes:

p. 19 Stephen Greenspan and his sister made the choice to invest with Bernie Madoff....Greenspan says that he should've known better, though, because he happens to be an expert on gullibility. When he decided to go ahead with the investment, he had almost finished writing a book on why we get duped.

p. 65 The Yoda Effect: "You Must Unlearn What You Have Learned
Interesting person to research and follow: Jean-Pierre Beugoms as well as his associates at GoodJudgment.com

p. 73 If we're insecure, we make fun of others. If we're comfortable being wrong, we're not afraid to poke fun at ourselves. Laughing at ourselves reminds us that although we might take our decisions seriously, we don't have to  take ourselves too seriously. Research suggests that the more frequently we make fun of ourselves, the happier we tend to be. Instead of beating ourselves up about our mistakes, we can turn some of our past misconceptions into sources of present amusement.

If you choose to make fun of yourself out loud, there's evidence that how people react depends on your gender. When men make self-deprecating jokes, they're seen as more capable leaders, but when women do it, they're judged as less capable. Apparently, many people have missed the memo that if a woman pokes fun at herself, it's not a reflection of incompetence or inadequacy. It's a symbol of confident humility and wit.

p. 73 Jean-Pierre Beaugoms has a favorite trick for catching himself when he's wrong. When he makes a forecast, he also makes a list of the conditions in which it should true - as well as the conditions under which he would change his mind. He explains that this keeps him honest, preventing him from getting attached to a bad prediction.


p. 260 Top 30 Practical Takeaways:

I. Individual Rethinking

A. Develop the Habit of Thinking Again

1. Think like a scientist. When you start forming an option, resist the temptation to preach, prosecute, or politick. Treat your emerging view as a hunch or a hypothesis and test it with data. Like the entrepreneurs who learned to approach their business strategies as experiments, you'll main the ability to pivot.

2. Define your identify in terms of values, not opinions.  It's easier to avoid getting stuck to your past beliefs if you don't become attached to them as part of your present self-concept. See yourself as someone who values curiosity, learning, mental flexibility, and searching for knowledge. As you form opinions, keep a list of facts that would change your mind.

3. Seek out information that goes against your views. You can fight confirmation bias, burst filter bubbles, and escape echo chambers by actively engaging with ideas that challenge your assumptions. An easy place to start is to follow people who make you think - even if you usually disagree with what they think.

B. Calibrate Your Confidence

4. Beware of getting stranded at the summit of Mount Stupid. Don't confuse confidence with competence. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a good reminder that the better you think you are, the greater the risk that you're overestimating yourself-and the greater the odds that you'll stop improving. To prevent overconfidence in your knowledge, reflect on how well you can explain a given subject.

5. Harness the benefits of doubt. When you find yourself doubting your ability, reframe the situation as an opportunity for growth. You can have confidence in your capacity to learn while questioning your current solution to a problem. Knowing what you don't know is often the first step toward developing expertise.

6. Embrace the joy of being wrong. When you find out you've made a mistake, take it as a sign that you've just discovered something new. Don't be afraid to laugh at yourself. It helps you focus less on proving yourself - and more on improving yourself.

C. Invite Others to Question Your Thinking

7. Learn something new from each person you meet. Everyone knows more than you about something. Ask people what they've been rethinking lately, or start a conversation about times you've changed your mind in the past year.

8. Build a challenge network, not just a support network. It's helpful to have cheerleaders encouraging you, but you also need critics to challenge you. Who are your most thoughtful critics? Once you've identified them, invite them to question your thinking. To make sure they know you're open to dissenting views, tell them why you respect their pushback - and where they usually add the most value.

9. Don't why away from constructive conflict. Disagreements don't have to be disagreeable. Although relationship conflict is usually counterproductive, task conflict can help you think again. Try framing disagreement as a debate: people are more likely to approach it intellectually and less likely to take it personally. 

II. Interpersonal Rethinking

A. Ask Better Questions

10. Practice the art of persuasive listening. When we're trying to open other people's minds, we can frequently accomplish more by listening than by talking. How can you show an interest in helping people crystallize their own views and uncover their own reasons for change? A good way to start is to increase your quesetion-to-statement ratio.

11. Question how rather than why. When people describe why they hold extreme views, they often intensify their commitment and double down. When they try to explain how they would make their views a reality, they often realize the limits of their understanding and start to temper some of their opinions.

12, Ask "What evidence would change your mind?" You can't bully someone into agreeing with you. It's often more effective to inquire about what would open their minds, and then see if you can convince them on their own terms.

13. Ask how people originally formed an opinion. Many of our opinions, like our stereotypes, are arbitrary; we've developed them without rigorous data or deep reflection To help people reevaluate, prompt them to consider how they'd believe different things if they'd been born at a different time or in a different place.


B. Approach DIsagreements as Dances, Not Battles

14. Acknowledge common ground. A debate is like a dance, not a war. Admitting points of convergence doesn't make you weaker - it shows that you're willing to negotiate about what's true, and it motivates the other side to consider your point of view.

15. Remember that less is often more. If you pile on too many different reasons to support your case, it can make your audience defensive - and cause them to reject your entire argument based on its least compelling points. Instead of diluting your argument, lead with a few of your strongest points.

16, Reinfrce freedom of choice. Sometimes people resist not because they're dismissing the argument but because they're rejecting the feeling of their behavior being controlled. It helps to respect their autonomy by reminding them that it's up to them to choose what they believe.

17. Have a conversation about the conversation. If emotions are running hot, try redirecting the discussion to the process. Like the expert negogiators who comment on their feelings and test their understanding of the other side's feelings, you can sometimes make progress by expressing your disappointment or frustration and asking people if they share it.

III. COLLECTIVE RETHINKING

A. Have More Nuanced Conversations

18. Complexity contentious topics. There are more than two sides of every story. Insteadd of treating polarizing issues like two sides of a coin, look at them through the many lenses of a prism. Seeing the shades of gray can make us more open.

19. Don't shy away from caveats and contingencies. Acknowledging competing claims and conflicting results doesn't sacrifice interest or credibility. It's an effective way to engage audiences while encouraging them to stay curious.

20. Expand your emotional range. You don't have to eliminate frustration or even indignation to have a productive conversation. You just need to mix in a broader set of emotions along with them - you might try showing some curiosity or even admitting confusion or ambivalence.

B. Teach Kids to Think Again

21. Have a weekly myth-busting discussion at dinner. It's easier to debunk false beliefs at an early age, and its' a great way to teach kids to become comfortable with rethinking. Pick a different topic each week - one day it might be dinosaurs, the next it could be outer space - and rotate responsibility around the family for bringing a myth for discussion.

22. Invite kids to do multiple drafts and seek feedback from others. Creating different versions of a drawing or story can encourage kids to learn the value of revising their ideas. Getting input from others can also help them to continue evolving their standards. They might learn to embrace confusion - and to stop expecting perfection on the first try.

23. Stop asking kids what they want to be when they grow up. They don't have to define themselves in terms of a career. A single identity can close the door to alternatives. Instead of trying to narrow their options, help them broaden their possibilities. They don't have to be one thing - they can do many things.

C. Create Learning Organizations

24. Abandon best practices. Best practices suggest that the ideal routines are already in place. If we want people to keep rethinking the way they work we might be better off adopting process accountability and continually striving for better practices.

25. Establish psychological safety. In learning cultures, people feel confident that they can question and challenge the stats quo without being punished. Psychological safety often starts with leaders role-modeling humility. 

26. Keep a rethink scorecard. Don't evaluate decisions base only on the results, track how thoroughly different options are considered in the process. A bad process with a good outcome is luck. A good process with a bad outcome might be a smart experiment.

D. Stay Open to Rethinking Your Future

27. Throw out the ten-year plan.  What interested you last year might bore you this year  - and what confused you yesterday might become exciting tomorrow. Passions are developed, not just discovered. Planning just one step ahead can keep our open to rethinking.

28. Rethink your actions, not just your surroundings. Chasing happiness can chase it away. Trading one set of circumstances for another isn't always enough. oy can wax and wane, but meaning is more likely to last. Building a sense of purpose often starts with taking actions to enhance your learning or your contribution to others.

29. Schedule a life checkup. it's easy to get caught in escalation of commitment to an unfulfilling path. Just as you schedule health checkups with your doctor, it's worth having a life checkup on your calendar once or twice a year. it's a way to assess how much you're learning, how your beliefs and goals are evolving, and whether your next steps warrant some rethinking.

30. Make time to think again. When I look at my calendar, I noticed that it was mostly full of doing. I set a goal of spending an hour a day thinking and learning. Now I've decided to go further. I'm scheduling a weekly time to rethinking and unlearning. I reach out to my challenge network and ask what ideas and opinions they think I should be reconsidering. recently, my wife, Allison, told me that I need to rethink the way I pronounce the word mayonnaise. 

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

The Hole Story (Kelly Canby)

 



This story has some subtleties to it that are great. The not so subtle bit is to talk about the word play of hole vs whole. The subtle part is the rabbit that appears on all the pages following the boy around. Once the boy finally decides to discard the hole because it is of no use to him, the rabbit can use it to live in. It could also be great as a story for inferencing. What could some of the people in the story do with that hole? Why do they not want it? What would happen if they did take it?

Goodreads says:

One day Charlie finds a hole. A hole of his very own! He picks it up and pops it in his pocket. But it doesn’t take Charlie long to realize that a hole in your pocket is not a good thing to have.

Monday, July 30, 2018

What's The Magic Word (Kelly DiPucchio)


This is a cute rhyming story. It would be fun to use it when our kindergarten classes are hatching their chicks. It would also work really well when we're writing couplets. Once students catch on to the fact that it rhymes and that there's a pattern, they could make predictions about where the chick is going to land next.


Goodreads says:

No matter where Little Bird goes, everyone wants to know the magic word. Is it "Peep-peep?" "Moo-moo?" "Oink-oink?"

How will Little Bird ever find out? Not until Little Bird returns home does he hear the magic word from his very own Mama Bird!

Kelly DiPucchio's rhythmic and noise-filled text combines with Marsha Winborn's colorful illustrations for a delightful swirl of a book.

Monday, July 9, 2018

Is That a Cat (Tim Hamilton)


Good lesson in things aren't always as they appear. This would be a good book for making predictions with visual clues.

Goodreads says:

While in search of a friend, the cat bumps into an elf. The elf needs rain to test his umbrella, but the only drops he finds are a bear's tears. This poor bear is looking for something too: his lost boot. Unfortunately, he discovers a dog instead. Hunting down these missing treasures gets harder and harder as each pursuit reveals something entirely different. Though no one gets what they were hoping for, this wacky chain of events leads to a happy ending. The group of characters has found one another and a good time! 

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Mira Forecasts the Future (Kell Andrews)

Well, she forecasts the future by learning to forecast the weather. Science rules!

Great story about weather and science and sticking to your guns when you know you're right.

Goodreads Says:

Telling the future is a gift: you either have it, or you don’t. And Mira, daughter of the famous fortune teller Madame Mirabella, just doesn't. When Madame gazes into the crystal ball, magic swirls. When Mira looks . . . nothing. Then one day Mira gets a pinwheel and a windsock, she finds her own form of “magic” in the science of predicting the weather—and saves the day for everyone! This engaging tale, with a fun touch of science thrown in, helps kids understand that we all have our own special talent. 

Friday, July 8, 2016

The Doorbell Rang (Pat Hutchins)

Would be a good story for introducing division! Could also be a simple book to use when working on predicting.

Goodreads summary:

Each ring of the doorbell brings more friends to share the delicious cookies Ma has made. This terrific and suspenseful read-aloud picture book about friendship, sharing, and cookies can also be used to introduce basic math concepts to young children. "Refreshing, enjoyable and unpredictable."—School Library Journal

Pat Hutchins is the celebrated creator of numerous award-winning books for children, including Rosie's WalkTitch, andDon't Forget the Bacon! The Doorbell Rang was named a Notable Book for Children by the American Library Association.

Supports the Common Core State Standards

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

A Fine, Fine School (Sharon Creech)

This reminded me of The Mixed of Files of Mrs. Basil E Frankweiler:

Claudia is telling Mrs. Frankweiler that you should try to learn something every day:

"No," I answered, "I don't agree with that. I think that you should learn, of course, and some days you must learn a great deal. But you should also have days when you allow what is already in you to well up inside of you until it touches everything. And you can feel it inside you. If you never take time out to let that happen, that you just accumulate facts, and they begin to rattle around inside of you. You can make noise with them, but never really feel anything with them. It's hollow."


Goodreads summary:


One day, Mr. Keene called all the students and teachers together and said, "This is a fine, fine school! From now on, let's have school on Saturdays too."And then there was more.

School all weekend.School on the holidays.

School in the SUMMER!

What was next . . .

SCHOOL AT NIGHT?

So it's up to Tillie to show her well-intentioned principal, Mr. Keene, that even though his fine, fine school is a wonderful place, it's not fine, fine to be there all the time.

This would be a great story for before a long break or an end of year story. Learning is important, and it doesn't just happen in the classroom.

This would also be a great book for predicting because it has a pattern, then the pattern changes and if kids are paying attention they'll notice it.